NBA Finals Preview

The moment we have all been waiting for. The Knicks are back in the finals and their opponent is set. The young, upstart Spurs beat the defending champion Thunder in Game 7 to win the west. What should we be looking forward to Wednesday night?

SEASON SERIES AND MATCHUP HISTORY:

Many have billed it as a rematch of the 1999 NBA Finals. Technically true, but De’Aaron Fox was the only Spurs starter even alive at the time. While John Starks got so hyped during the Game 1 comeback against Cleveland that he almost ran on the court, he was not on that team. The Knicks defeated the Spurs in the NBA Cup Final 124-113. The home team won both regular season matchups. The Spurs won 134-132 on New Year’s Eve in a game they trailed by as much as 19 in the first half. Josh Hart did not play due to a sprained ankle. The Knicks blew the Spurs out by 25 on March 1st at MSG. The Spurs lost 4 regular season games after the all star break. The rest of those losses were to the Denver Nuggets. One in OT, one by 5, and a 10 point loss without Victor Wembenyama on the last day of the regular season.

MATCHUPS:

Knicks on offense:

Jalen Brunson vs. Stephon Castle

Josh Hart vs. Wemby

Mikal Bridges vs. De’Aaron Fox

OG Anunoby vs. Julian Champagnie

Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Devin Vassell

Knicks on Defense:

Brunson vs. Vassell

Bridges vs. Castle

Hart vs. Fox

KAT vs. Champagnie

OG vs. Wemby

In the last few series, the matchups have been straight forward. This one, appears to be more of a chess match. It would seem like the Spurs are overthinking not putting Wemby, the unanimous Defensive Player Of The Year, on All-NBA snub KAT. However, they used Vassell on Chet the majority of defensive possessions and it worked. The Cavs tried the, “leave Josh Hart open and let him shoot,” method on defense too and it backfired. In Game 1, Mike Brown adjusted and benched Hart for Landry Shamet during the comeback. In Game 2, Hart torched the Cavs for a playoff career high 26 points while going 5-11 from 3. KAT played the best defense of his career and it has continued into the postseason. However, OG Anunoby is the best Wemby stopper. According to research by Pacers blogger, Caitlin Cooper, there are 20 NBA players who have guarded Wemby for more than 100 half court matchups. OG has allowed the few points per 100 possessions to Wemby. This, coupled with Mitchell Robinson attempting to play through a broken pinkie/hand, makes OG the best candidate as Wemby’s primary defender.

THE BENCH:

You don’t typically refer to a bench as, “top heavy,” but it fits the Spurs. Keldon Johnson won the 6th Man Of The Year and Dylan Harper also received votes. After that, the Spurs bench is kind of thin. Luke Kornet gets the non-Wemby minutes and outside a huge block on Isaiah Hartenstein in Game 7, he didn’t make much of an impact only averaging 10 minutes a game. The 9 men are Harrison Barnes and rookie, Carter Bryant. Bryant took playing time from Barnes as the season went on. They played a combined 115 minutes against the Thunder and split the about as evenly as they could. Barnes played 58 and Bryant had 57. So they get 8 minutes a night a piece. For the Knicks, the bench was the one thing I thought needs to be better when watching the Eastern Conference Finals. Outside of Landry Shamet, who was lights out against Cleveland going 12-13 from three. the Knicks bench was mostly quiet until the clinching game. Deuce McBride is actually shooting a higher percentage from 3 in the postseason than he did in the regular season, but he’s been streaky. In the Knicks 14 playoff games, he’s shot 40% or better from three in half his games and lower in the other half. In the last two rounds, it’s even more noticeable. In non-elimination games, he was 6-23 from three. In the last two elimination games, he has gone 10 of 14. Jordan Clarkson, who has been in and out of the rotation in the second half and in the playoffs, could be a wild card. In the regular season loss and NBA Cup Finals win, Clarkson scored 35 points against the Spurs on 7-13 from 3. If the Knicks offense looks sluggish at any point in the series, look for Mike Brown call on Clarkson, who played high school ball at Karen Wagner in San Antonio. Then you have the biggest question of all, how much will Mitchell Robinson play and how effective will he be?

X-Factor:

Knicks-Josh Hart: I was tempted to go with OG Anunoby. I was also tempted to go with Mitchell Robinson since when he plays he will be responsible for guarding Wemby. In the previous rounds, it’s been more about defense. This round, I am going with more of an offensive x-factor in Josh Hart. As I mentioned earlier, the Cavs decided to guard him with a big, have the big sag off, and almost dare him to shoot. It worked in Game 1, at least until Mike Brown took him out of the game and put in Shamet. In Game 2, he hit his shots and the Cavs went to a more conventional defense. If he starts strong, the Spurs will be forced to adjust and put Wemby on Towns, allowing Towns to draw him away from the basket

Spurs-Devin Vassell: Like I mentioned earlier, Vassell was the primary defender on Chet Holgrem, who pulled a disappearing act in Game 7. Towns is better offensively. Better passer, better three point shooter, and better all around scorer. Vassell also had the best 3 point percentage of any Spurs rotation piece in the regular season. A hot shooting night could swing a game in favor of San Antonio.

PREDICTION: KNICKS IN 6

The Knicks have arguably the best playoff performer of the decade in Jalen Brunson and 3 good defenders they can throw at Wemby. Another big reason I have the Knicks winning is experience. The Spurs are probably a year or two ahead of where I thought they’d be this season. I looked at their roster and thought they could be a play-in team or even the 6th seed with some luck. Wemby is likely to end up as an all-time great as long as his body holds up, but even the greats don’t typically win young without having another all-time great as their running mate. Magic had Kareem, Tim Duncan had David Robinson, and Dwayne Wade had Shaq. Some would argue Larry Bird is an exception to the rule. However, when he was his first title, the Celtics had future Hall of Famers Nate “Tiny,” Archibald in year 10 and Robert Parish in year 5. It was also Cedric Maxwell, not Bird, who won the NBA Finals MVP. De’aaron Fox is an all star and Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper have potential, but they aren’t all-time greats. When asked for inside into stopping Wemby, Jeremy Sochan, who signed with the Knicks after being waived by the Spurs, said they have to be physical, especially in the 4th quarter when he gets tired. Wemby has also already surpassed in career high game total playing a combined 83 games in the regular season, postseason, and NBA Cup final. That’s where the rest factor comes into play.